4:30 pm - 6:00 pm
There is little doubt that the prospect of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV or simply AVs) on our roads is one of the most challenging, and also attractive, disruptions to our existing transport systems. This new technology will have a transformative effect on most aspects of our mobility. This poses an important problem to our efforts to model and forecast travel demand in a future context where CAVs will be present, probably 2025 onwards. The presentation will highlight the most important impacts that can be expected from CAVs and the main factors influencing the extent of these impacts. This will be partly based on a recent Delphi exercise that identified regional differences and local influences. For example, experts in Australasia expect CAVs earlier than in Europe or Latin America. Moreover, the proportion of CAVs owned or hired as Mobility as a Service has a strong influence over trip induction and empty running, two issues that may limit some of the benefits from adopting CAVs. The presentation will then discuss how some of these contributors to future uncertainty could be modelled, or more accurately, how can these uncertainties be handled in order to best support decision making. This requires a consideration of the limitations of modelling, current and future, and how to select the appropriate level of model granularity to support solid policy and investment decisions in transport. A couple of background papers can be made available via the conference website.
Willumsen will host an interactive workshop seeking a deeper understanding and discussion of the issues in the presentation. The key points will be summarized to be followed by a set of key questions to be posed to participants, some that will depend on the local context and some more relevant to the whole of Australia and the region. It is expected that this will spark a series of comments and quick fire questions and answers to the host and participants. Participant involvement is essential as neither Willumsen nor anybody else has all the answers required to tackle these issues.
Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has over 35 years of experience as a consultant, transport planner and researcher with a distinguished academic career. He is an internationally recognised authority in Transport and Traffic Modelling. Based in Britain since 1975, he was a researcher and lecturer at Leeds University and then at University College London. Luis was a Director of Steer Davies Gleave having joined it full-time in 1989 with a special responsibility for technical development; he left that company to set up his independent practice in December 2009. He has written over 50 technical papers, books and book chapters. He is co-author with Prof. Ortúzar of “Modelling Transport” a book published by Wiley and now in its fourth edition. More recently he has published “Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting” dealing with the issues of risk and uncertainty in producing projections for transport concessions; both books are available in hard and electronic versions through Amazon and other outlets. His experience covers large transport modelling assignments, leadership of numerous traffic and revenue forecasting studies for Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, Rail, Metro, LRT and BRT projects. These have been undertaken either for the private sector, financial institutions or government sponsors. He has led projects for different types of rapid transit services including the operational design of Transmilenio in Bogotá; he has also experience in Congestion Charging and more widely Transport Planning for large cities and regions.
Cost: Free for Members, $60 for non-members
|4:30 pm||Afternoon tea and networking|
|5:00 pm||Introduction and welcome|
|5:05 pm||Key Note Presentation: Dealing with Uncertainty in Transport Forecasting|
|6:05 pm||Questions to all presenters|
|6:30 pm||Close and networking|
Venue Phone: 02 9955 2245Address: